[SMM Nickel Midday Review] Nickel prices remained in the doldrums on October 15, as the US Fed may cut interest rates again in October.

SMM Nickel October 15 News:

Macro and Market News:

(1) US Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the quantitative tightening (QT) plan is expected to conclude soon, as liquidity conditions in the financial system are gradually tightening. Powell did not deliberately dampen the widespread market expectation that the US Fed may cut interest rates again at the meeting on October 28-29. He stated that the economic outlook has "not changed much" since the last meeting's decision to cut rates.

(2) Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in September 2025, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.3% YoY. Specifically, urban areas dropped 0.2%, while rural areas dropped 0.5%; food prices fell 4.4%, while non-food prices rose 0.7%; prices of consumer goods fell 0.8%, while prices of services rose 0.6%. On average from January to September, the national CPI fell 0.1% compared to the same period last year. In September, the national CPI rose 0.1% MoM. Specifically, urban areas were flat, while rural areas rose 0.2%; food prices rose 0.7%, while non-food prices fell 0.1%; prices of consumer goods rose 0.3%, while prices of services fell 0.3%.

Spot Market:

On October 15, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 120,000-123,700 yuan/mt, with an average price of 122,300 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,300-2,500 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-100 yuan/mt.

Futures Market:

The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2511) opened at 120,870 yuan/mt on October 15. After hitting an intraday high, the price pulled back slightly. By the midday close, it was quoted at 120,820 yuan/mt, down 0.21%.

Persistent risks of a US government shutdown and escalating Sino-US trade friction have triggered market risk-off sentiment. The US Fed's policy moves remain a key market focus. Although expectations for an interest rate cut exist, the specific timing and magnitude remain uncertain. Given weak fundamentals and a turbulent external environment, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract's reference range at 120,000-124,000 yuan/mt.